Some optimistic news for China’s economy while it wrestles with the coronavirus outbreak.
This month a Reuters poll of 40 economists from around the world predicted that its economy will recover quickly from the outbreak as long as the virus is contained soon.
They also predicted annual economic growth in the first quarter of 2020 would plummet to 4.5% from 6% in the previous quarter.
And they expect that will drag the year’s growth down to the weakest since at least 1990 when comparable records began.
Some experts polled say they see growth bouncing back in the second quarter.
However, other were more cautious.
Whan asked what would happen if Beijing failed to contain the virus from spreading rapidly, some mainland economists were reluctant to respond.
China’s share of the global economy has quadrupled sice the 2003 SARS outbreak.
Hong Kong analyst Dickie Wong says that means this outbreak could be more painful.
(SOUNDBITE) (English) KINGSTON SECURITIES LTD., EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, DICKIE WONG, SAYING:
“Especially for clothing company and even some of the technology company as well. So I think first half will create some kind of pressure to those companies, not only Chinese companies but also Asian companies and the U.S.. Because as I said, the supply chain will create some kind of pressure.”
Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, is a factory hub and major link in the global supply chain.
Major companies have been affected by the city’s shutdown.
South Korean automaker Hyundai announced last month that it would suspend production of some SUVs because its Wuhan suppliers were shut down.
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Source : Reuters Link